Market Insights- December 2025

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Sheds 32,000 Jobs in November as Pay Growth Slows to 4.4%

The November ADP National Employment Report points to a softening U.S. private labor market, with a 32,000 job decline marking the largest drop in more than two years and underscoring mounting pressure on smaller firms and cyclical sectors. At the same time, annual pay growth for workers who stayed in their jobs slowed to 4.4%, suggesting easing wage inflation that could support the case for lower interest rates over time while raising questions about the durability of consumer spending.

Data Highlights and Analysis

·      Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November, with ADP noting that job creation has been essentially flat in the second half of 2025 and that this latest decline is the steepest since the immediate post‑pandemic period. Forecasts had called for a modest gain, so the negative print surprised consensus expectations.

·      Job losses were led by small businesses with fewer than 50 employees, which collectively cut around 120,000 positions, while medium‑sized and large employers continued to add workers. This points to a widening divergence between larger, better‑capitalized firms and smaller enterprises more exposed to higher rates and cost pressures.

·      Sector‑wise, hiring was notably weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction, while education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and natural resources and mining reported net gains. This mix suggests cyclical sensitivity in goods‑producing and white‑collar project‑driven segments, alongside ongoing resilience in services tied to demographics and consumer experiences.

·      Pay growth for job‑stayers slowed to 4.4% year‑over‑year, down from 4.5% in October, and pay growth for job‑changers eased to 6.3% from 6.7%, extending a downward trend in wage inflation through 2025. Slower wage gains reduce inflation pressure but could also temper the support that household income has provided to spending and earnings.

Market and Investment Implications

For equities, softer private hiring paired with moderating wage growth generally supports the “soft‑landing” narrative but also raises sector‑specific risks, particularly for small‑cap companies and industries tied to capital‑intensive projects. Investors may see relative performance tailwinds for larger, more diversified firms and for defensive or services‑oriented sectors that continue to add jobs, such as health care and select consumer services.

For fixed income, evidence of cooling labor demand and easing pay growth tends to reinforce expectations for eventual policy easing by the Federal Reserve, which can support Treasury prices and risk‑sensitive credit if markets maintain confidence in a controlled slowdown. However, if job losses broaden beyond small businesses, credit markets could begin to price higher default risk in lower‑quality corporate and small‑business exposures, warranting careful credit selection.

For currencies and commodities, a softer labor backdrop and increased odds of rate cuts can weigh on the U.S. dollar at the margin, supporting non‑U.S. risk assets if global growth remains stable. Cyclical commodities tied to construction and manufacturing could face headwinds from weaker hiring in those sectors, even as services demand helps underpin broader activity.

Strategic Considerations / Outlook

Investors may want to monitor whether job losses remain concentrated in small firms and specific sectors or begin to spill over into broader private‑sector weakness, which would present a more meaningful challenge to earnings and consumer spending. Persistent divergence between large and small employers could influence portfolio tilts between large‑cap and small‑cap exposures, as well as between cyclical and defensive sectors, subject to each client’s objectives and risk tolerance.

Looking ahead, the path of wage growth from the current 4.4% pace will be critical for both inflation and Fed policy expectations; further moderation would be consistent with lower inflation but may also signal weaker income growth for households.

Investors may frame scenarios around a soft landing (moderate job and wage cooling with stable growth) versus a harder slowdown (broadening job losses and sharper earnings pressure), using them to stress‑test plans without making tactical market‑timing calls.

Upcoming Releases

Key U.S. releases in the days following the ADP report typically include: the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, weekly initial jobless claims, and data such as ISM surveys, JOLTS, trade, and inflation indicators, all of which help confirm or challenge the ADP signal for November. Investors may also watch scheduled Federal Reserve communications and the next CPI and PPI readings for additional insight into how labor and wage trends are feeding through to policy and market expectations.

Source:  ADP

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